Among the individual categories, fabricated metals orders led with a 1.2 percent increase, followed by computers and electronic products with a 0.5 percent rise, machinery orders up 0.4 percent, and all other durables adding 0.4 percent. Furthermore, real new orders for durable goods and real new orders for nondefense capital goods remain below their January 2000 level (see first chart again).įour of the seven major categories shown in the durable-goods report posted a gain in July, in nominal terms. Despite the gain, real new orders for capital goods are trending nearly flat over the past year. In real terms, after adjusting for inflation, real new orders for durable goods fell 0.5 percent in July, while real new orders for nondefense capital goods – one of AIERs leading indicators – jumped 2.8 percent (see first chart). However, rapid price increases have had an impact on capital goods orders. Orders are up 9.4 percent from a year ago, with the level at $74.5 billion, a new record high. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, or core capital goods, a proxy for business equipment investment, rose 0.4 percent in July after increasing 0.9 percent in June.
The July gain puts the level of total durable-goods orders at $273.5 billion, the third highest on record.
Total durable-goods orders are up 11.8 percent from a year ago. New orders for durable goods were essentially unchanged in July, following a 2.2 percent gain in June.
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